On the Oscars: 2026 Winners Predictions
- Ahon Gooptu
- 4 days ago
- 16 min read
Here we are again, mere days away from Oscars Sunday/Monday morning. The slightly later date for the ceremony this year has given me some more time to catch up with all the filmfare, considering many of these films never released in Kolkata or only released for a week or so. Also more time to write this and really relish the process. I haven't had the luxury of time the past two years. Reflecting upon the year that’s been, I am proud of the wide range of films I did watch prior to the Oscar nominations just by being more regular at the movies than the previous year—this is always a win.
Just to take another moment to talk about the nominated films this year, I want to explicitly the note the wider diversity of the nomination pool this year, especially the extremely competent and competitive International Feature Film category. Not one, but two of them also feature in the Best Picture category, which is rare. Also, the inclusion of such films as F1 and Train Dreams in the same category, which would usually never feature here due to their genre. But this is good news for film.
The best news is, of course, marked by the achievement by Sinners setting a new record for being the most-nominated film for the Oscars, albeit that’s also partly because of the addition of a 24th category this year: Casting. Still, it’s quite the genrefluid film, a step beyond a film like Everything Everywhere All at Once, perhaps, which swept in its year. This means the Academy voting body is growing with the development of film as a medium, which is always a good sign as I sit down to reflect and make my predictions.
Skip ahead to:
Following the positive feedback last year, I have once again made a watchlist guide for all of you out there who aren't as film-crazy as me and haven't had time to watch as much this year. I gotchu. The following is in order of my level of enjoyment. Here is your...
TLDW (Too Long; Didn’t Watch) Guide — in five words or less
Sinners – Spiritual identity crisis horror musical
It Was Just An Accident – Quest-gone-wrong comedy thriller
The Secret Agent – Neo-noir retrospective political thriller
One Battle After Another – Quest-gone-wrong comedy action thriller
Sentimental Value – Family theatre-versus-film drama
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – God complex coming-of-age
If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You – Single mom tragicomedy thriller
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Theatrical rescue operation docudrama
Hamnet – Love and loss realist tragedy
Sirāt – Quest-gone-wrong thriller tragedy
Elio – Cross-dimensional chosen family adventure
F1 – Sports hero drama blockbuster extravaganza
Weapons – Supernatural black comedy horror mystery
Marty Supreme – Sports loser comedy drama extravaganza
Arco – Cross-dimensional friendship fantasy adventure
The Lost Bus – Realist school family disaster tragedy
Blue Moon – Biographical retrospective one-act drama
Song Sung Blue – Biographical duo’s insanity musical extravaganza
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Familiar yet phenomenal sci-fi fantasy
Train Dreams – Retrospective tragedy meets cinematographic extravaganza
Frankenstein – Gothic sci-fi adventure drama
KPop Demon Hunters – Supernatural spiritual identity crisis musical
Bugonia – Quest-gone-wrong black comedy thriller
Zootopia 2 – Buddy cop comedy adventure
Jurassic World Rebirth – Familiar yet sloppy sci-fi fantasy
[Not watched but hope to soon: Kokuho]
[Not watched and not going to: Makeup and Hairstyling nominees The Smashing Machine and The Ugly Stepsister and Original Song nominees Dianne Warren: Relentless and Viva Verdi!]
Hope this helps you figure out which ones you want to watch yourself. And now, for whatever it’s worth, here are my thoughts and predictions. Skip around as you wish!
Big Hits for the 98th Oscars
Expect simultaneous sweeps for both Sinners and One Battle After Another (leading with 16 and 13 nominations respectively), for whom I’m predicting at least three wins each.
The tightest races this year are Best Actor and Best Picture.
In addition to some unpredictable categories: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, International Feature Film, Live Action Short Film, and of course, the newest category, Casting.
THE TOP CONTENDERS: WHO & WHY
Expectedly, the films with the least buzz are the two rather unexpected Best Picture inclusions: F1 and Train Dreams, with four nominations each. This is a big win for cinema as it seems that both films resonated a fair amount with the Academy. While the former is the kind of film I went to watch in IMAX with my closest friend circle in the city—all of whom are die-hard F1 fans—and had the best time; the latter is the kind that I wouldn’t be able to get anyone else to watch with me, and I fell asleep while watching on my TV in my living room. Admittedly, when I woke up and finished the last twenty minutes of Train Dreams, I was a changed person and had to add a star and a half to my rating on my recently revived Letterboxd, because it’s just that kind of film that comes together in the final act. F1 is obviously best enjoyed in a big theater with all the snacks. The sound and editing are beyond incredible, and I didn’t hate Brad Pitt! Meanwhile, Train Dreams is breathtaking to watch (by far the best cinematography of the year!) but with a pace and narrative structure that are not necessarily easy to get behind, even for avid movie-lovers. Both are films which will hopefully have a moment to shine in at least one category (keep reading to find out which ones ;)) on Sunday.
Then there’s a film like Bugonia, with an equal number of nominations, which has all the right ingredients for Oscar bait, but falls short of any winnable power. Jesse Plemons, who I felt carried this film more than nth-time nominee Emma Stone, lost out on a nomination in an already competitive Best Actor category. But even then, it’s a film that sort of goes round in circles with what it wants to do, and with more twists and turns than you can predict. It’s a fun watch, but definitely not Yorgos Lanthimos’s most impactful. It will leave empty-handed on Sunday.
Similar in wavelength and bait (but definitely on the opposite end of the genre spectrum) is Hamnet, which boasts an impressive eight nominations. This is not a film for everyone, but is sure to move many primarily because of how it grapples with grief. Chloé Zhao is absolutely the right person to lead this film, by which I mean, I don’t know anybody else who could have crafted such magic on screen. Right from the very first shot to the frustrating cuts to black interspersed throughout the film, Hamnet knows exactly what it’s doing. It’s smart, it’s sensitive, it’s almost perfectly cast (I love Paul Mescal, but there was just something off about his performance) across all the generations depicted. All the allusions to the makings of Shakespeare’s best are bound to tickle any fan in just the right places. More on first-time nominee Jessie Buckley later, but (spoiler alert) I want to take a moment to shout out to the genius casting of brothers Jacobi and Noah Jupe as Hamnet and “Hamlet,” which had me double take in the same way that Buckley’s Agnes did in The Globe Theater. For that alone, it should win the inaugural Casting statuette!
The two international features that heavily feature in the nominations are Sentimental Value, with nine, and The Secret Agent, with four. Both are phenomenal works and are close contenders for their big individual category. As tight ensemble stories, they are doing a lot, but alas, they fall short of the big-ness that voters generally look for in a Best Picture winner, which—unfortunately for them—some of the other nominees have. One of them will take home the prize for International Feature Film, but don’t have a real fighting chance for the biggest award of the night.
The two other nine-time nominated films are Frankenstein and Marty Supreme. Guillermo del Toro’s retelling of the tale as old as time is a visual treat and will definitely be rewarded for its achievement in design and craftsmanship, but the ensemble’s performances feel too small for how big this film is—except for first-time nominee Jacob Elordi, who brings a strange pathos to the Creature, and Mia Goth, who shines and sways in gorgeous gowns as Elizabeth. On the other hand, Marty Supreme is a new telling of an unusual tale—that of a self-absorbed table tennis player—with a star-studded cast and all the makings of an Academy favourite but will (hopefully) in all likelihood leave the ceremony without anything to show for it. Yeah, hopefully not even fan-favourite-until-very-recently Timothée Chalamet will win. Not after his brainless snafu during his Variety interview with Matthew McConnaughey, where he scoffed people who are still trying to keep “things” like ballet or opera alive “even though like no one cares about this anymore.” Yeah, I don’t want him near any golden statuette. Shoutout to Odessa A’zion, though, who impresses in her supporting role, as well as (spoiler alert) the orange ping pong balls. RIP.
Which brings us to our frontrunners for this year. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has been at the forefront of Oscar predictions right from when it hit theaters. From the inventive screenplay to the stellar performances by the ensemble cast, this film does a lot really well. Chase Infiniti leads with power in her feature film debut but lost out on a Best Actress nomination. There’s hope yet for her on-screen mother Teyana Taylor, who could take home the award for Best Supporting Actress. Her on-screen father Sean Penn will most definitely emerge victorious in the Best Supporting Actor category. And Anderson himself is sure to take home at least two statuettes himself.
Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, however, has been on the rise throughout the awards season, with sporadic wins for almost all of their frontrunner first-time nominees as well as for two-time Oscar-winning composer Ludwig Goransson at other ceremonies. Most recently, the ensemble cast won for their performances at the Actor Awards, alongside a win for lead actor Michael B. Jordan. This is awesome, because it just means it’s anyone’s game for the most coveted award of the night. But before we get there, let’s get through all of my other predictions.
THE SHORTS (THAT I’VE WATCHED)
Unfortunately, I still haven’t been able to watch Retirement Plan or The Three Sisters in the Animated Short Film category, but I’ve gone ahead and hyperlinked the titles of all the shorts you can watch for free on YouTube. Forevergreen is about… spirituality, I think? Confused by what it’s trying to do, but it was a cute watch. Animation-wise, both The Girl Who Cried Pearls and Butterfly are doing the most. The former is endearing, but not my favourite. I was most impressed by the narrative, the “short” feel/genre, and most importantly, animation of Butterfly, and am rooting for their win, fully knowing that serious critics might prefer the stop motion wonder of The Girl Who Cried Pearls.
The Live Action Short Film pool is genuinely stacked and no other Oscar predictor can truly make a “safe” call here, much to my excitement. I’ve only watched the trailer for The Butcher’s Stain, which looks intense and thrilling and undoubtedly timely, but perhaps more suitable for a win in a Documentary category. I didn’t quite get the musical short The Singers on first watch, but when a dear friend talked to me about the unique loneliness of war veterans—the subjects in this film—I was able to appreciate it in a new light. The comedy in the mix, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, is a riot to watch. My friend and I laughed out loud while watching it at the end of a very long and tiresome day. The same friend watched A Friend of Dorothy with me the following night and I was in tears missing my grandmother. I’d recommend both of these if you’re looking for something short and sweet to watch. The frontrunner here, I think, is Two People Exchanging Saliva, although as my aforementioned dear friend rightly pointed out during our debrief, it’s a little too long for a short, clocking in at a modest 36 minutes. So, is that cheating? But it does do a lot (I mean, it has the time to). It’s between this “short” and A Friend of Dorothy for me, but I’m predicting a win for the latter. Don’t be surprised, though, if voters gravitate toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict issue depicted in The Butcher’s Stain, although I have no grounds to campaign for its victory.
THE EDUCATED GUESSES
This section is for the categories I’ve either not watched at all or is new to the ceremony, so we don’t really know how or what to predict.
My money’s on All the Empty Rooms for Documentary Short and The Perfect Neighbor for Documentary Feature for being the most politically timely in their categories.
For reasons I’ve stated above, Hamnet should really win for Casting. But my educated guess is that this award will likely go to the film that will be leading the count come Oscars night. So then, it’s between One Battle After Another and Sinners. This is tough, as both have stellar performances by debutant/es Chase Infiniti and Miles Caton respectively in addition to star power like Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael B. Jordan at the forefront. What makes it even more complicated to me is that One Battle After Another, along with Sentimental Value has more acting nominees than any other film (four each), which would mean these were both very well cast films. But Sentimental Value is not nominated here; instead, The Secret Agent is, which has an even more complicated ensemble than Sinners. By some of this logic along with what I am claiming as intuition from their recent win for the ensemble at the Actor Awards, I am predicting a win for Sinners for the inaugural award.
MUSIC
Original Song always goes to the most popular one, so “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters is going to take this one home.
For immersing us in a world of its own and then some, Sinners composer Ludwig Goransson will take the trophy for Original Score, marking his second win for a Ryan Coogler film (Black Panther) and third overall (Oppenheimer) in the last decade.
ANIMATED and INTERNATIONAL FEATURES
A truly wide range of goodness in these categories. Arco and Elio are similar in feel and storyline, although the former is more traditional in form. Elio is Pixar doing what it does best: make me bawl on a weeknight. Zootopia 2 really is Zootopia again, so quite unoriginal, albeit delightfully nostalgic of the first film’s best moments. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain is my favourite in his category (you’ll notice it’s in my top 10 of the nominees this year), solely because, as my dear friend remarked during our watch, each frame feels like a painting. It’s a rollercoaster, although sometimes predictable, but definitely at the top of the craft game in this pool according to me. Majority of the wins this awards season, however, signal the international sensation KPop Demon Hunters reigning supreme for Animated Feature on Sunday.
This year’s nomination pool for International Feature films has to be one of the best in recent years. Each film is beautifully crafted and boasts of impressive performances from each cast. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) is like seeing a really tight play unravel before your eyes, with barely any room to breathe at times. The docudrama genre, however, does not play in its favour for a win. Sirāt (Spain) is next in line in terms of intensity; and it really is a tense two hours to make it until the final moment. It Was Just An Accident (France) was definitely my favourite of the lot, with impeccably timed and natural performances from each member of the cast. And the twists and turns in this are something that Bugonia could benefit learning from—in moments, in fact, I noted this film felt Anora-esque to me in terms of feel. But the competition is really between The Secret Agent (Brazil), which originally felt like the obvious frontrunner (don’t forget that Brazil is the reigning champion from I’m Still Here last year) and Sentimental Value (Norway), which has garnered more love during awards season. That, coupled with its nine nominations, compels me to predict a win for Norway this year.
ACHIEVEMENTS in DESIGN and TECHNOLOGY
The James Cameron-led Avatar: Fire and Ash will complete a hat-trick for the franchise winning for Visual Effects.
The Guillermo del Toro-led Frankenstein will sweep all the other craft awards—Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design, Production Design for top-notch consistency across the board.
THE STUFF THAT MAKES THE FILM
Frankenstein does a lot to support the action-packed sequences with its Sound design, but the game here is really between F1 and Sirāt, both “sound” films. If the voting body is boring, they’ll pick one of the Best Picture frontrunners to give them a boost towards the final award of the night. In which case, Sinners is likely to topple One Battle After Another. If the Academy stays true to continuing in The Zone of Interest line of voting, this category is the vroom-vroom of F1’s to lose.
The crazy car chasing sequences deem F1 and One Battle After Another at the top of the Editing pool, but the sports drama film is unlikely to be two times lucky. Besides, historically the winners of both this category and Cinematography usually signal the Best Picture win. Which is particularly upsetting because Train Dreams really is a film about cinematography. But at the same time, Sinners is doing some incredibly genre-busting stuff with the camera through each musical sequence and in depicting the duality of Smoke and Stack. For this, I’m predicting One Battle After Another winning for Editing and Sinners emerging victorious for Cinematography.
This is actually quite exciting as it would even the prediction for the final award, while making Sinners’ Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first woman to win in her category. Although, a win for Train Dreams would also be a welcome step forward for the Academy, in terms of honouring the craft and not rewarding the obvious choice.
THE MAIN CULPRITS
Speaking of evening the prediction, Paul Thomas Anderson will win for his Adapted Screenplay, One Battle After Another, while Ryan Coogler will win for his madly Original Screenplay, Sinners. But both cannot take home the prize for Director. And really, after 14 nominations (and one aforementioned win come Sunday), this is Paul Thomas Anderson’s year.
A CIRCUIT SWEEP and THREE NAIL-BITING DRAMAS
For the last three years, the Best Actress race has been the closest call of the night. And my predictions for the last two years have led me astray. So following Mikey Madison’s win last year, I enlisted the advice of my friend and former roommate Mateo, an avid moviegoer himself, with whom I’ve competed on our prediction-to-win ratios for some years now. We are both in agreement that this year, the race is a no-brainer. Mateo’s favourite Emma Stone already has two statuettes for this very category, and her performance in Bugonia doesn’t surpass her turn as Bella in Lanthimos’s Poor Things from a couple years ago. Kate Hudson’s nomination for the biographical musical Song Sung Blue is a welcome comeback, after 25 years(!) since her previous one for Almost Famous, but this is unfortunately not her year. First-time nominees fill out the rest of the pool in three rollercoaster dramatic roles: Sentimental Value’s Renate Reinsve, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You’s Rose Byrne, and Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley. Reinsve puts up a good fight here, but the competition is between Byrne and Buckley for portraying mothers who are Going Through It. It’s a pity that Byrne won’t take home the Oscar for her career-best performance, because the awards circuit have basically crowned Buckley victorious.
So instead, Mateo and I deliberated over the other acting categories this year, all predictable in their own way. He claims One Battle After Another’s Sean Penn has it in the bag for Supporting Actor, and I’m inclined to agree. This is sad for his fellow cast member and co-nominee Benicio del Toro, but Penn delivers a more impressive performance anyway. Kudos to Jacob Elordi for securing a place in this list for Frankenstein, but he’ll get his statuette another year. The only two who pose a threat to Penn are Stellan Skarsgård and Delroy Lindo. The latter hasn’t won any major award in this category this season, besides the big ensemble award at the Actor Awards, where he repped the cast of Sinners for the acceptance speech. But all the buzz is buzzing in his favour… so… watch out… Meanwhile, Skarsgård is really committing category fraud for his lead role in Sentimental Value—although when has that ever stopped the Academy? Just take reigning champion Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) for example. Although he’s managed to secure a win at the Golden Globes, Penn swept both the BAFTA and the Actor Award. I doubt when else Papa Skarsgård will have a chance to win an Oscar in this lifetime, but history favours Penn this year, which would mark his third win for this category!
It’s a similar three-way toss for Supporting Actress—apologies to the Sentimental Value nominees Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
Mateo: “Inga had a great performance, but won’t be in the mix”
Ahon: “Elle Fanning didn’t need a nom”
Early on, the race seemed between Amy Madigan (Weapons), who bagged the Critic’s Choice Award, and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), who secured the Golden Globe. Then, Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) won the BAFTA across the pond, in a category that Madigan was not nominated. But then, Madigan returned to the race by winning the prestigious Actor Award, the usual precursor to Oscars night.
Mateo: “Wunmi could surprise, but only if Sinners is winning Best Picture”
Ahon: “If Teyana wins, then One Battle wins”
Mateo: “Same could happen with Delroy in Supporting Actor, it’s gonna be real close”
Ahon: “But this is more fun. That it could go any way”
I think the Academy will honour Madigan’s long career and a second nomination after a whopping 41-year gap!
Which brings us to the tightest race this year: Best Actor. Sorry, Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another): not your year.
Mateo: “I think it would be fun if Wagner Moura won [for The Secret Agent]”
Ahon: “If MBJ wins, Sinners will win.”
Mateo: “Anyone other than Timmy”
Mateo: “Fuck Timmy”
Mateo: “Not deserving at all”
Come on, Michael B. Jordan, bring it home!!!
IF YOU’VE COME THIS FAR…
Thank you for coming along for the ride. I’m just so happy to talk into the ether to all of you reading from wherever about something I happen to dedicate so much of my time toward every year. Apologies for the slightly longer write-up this year, but it’s just such an exciting night with so many categories still up in the air. Please write to me with your thoughts, agreements, and disagreements—it’s the best part of this entire project I’ve taken on for myself, lol.
AND THE OSCAR GOES TO…
The final battle is between One Battle After Another and Sinners. I loved both, and both are doing so much for film. A win for One Battle is a win for a more hopeful and sensitive USA, which the world desperately needs right now as we start feeling the effects of war from our own little cozy corners across the globe. A win for Sinners is a win for not only the horror as a genre (remember when The Silence of the Lambs won this award while also sweeping in its year? Yeah, that was 35 years ago!) but also for how much we can push the envelope on how we experience the medium of film in theaters. Both are massive wins for Black stories and the power of community. Impeccable writing and stellar performances across the board, as proven by the other wins for both films at the 98th ceremony. But I’ll end with the underdog pick for Best Picture: Sinners.
Until next year!
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